“The stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions” – Paul Samuelson
Roasted another 5lbs of peanut butter and 2lbs of pecan butter. The last batch went very quickly. No other ingredients. No salt, no maple, no cinnamon, no brown sugar.
Uninstalled the version of openjdk that came stock on my laptop @ /usr/lib/jvm. Installed v13 to /usr/local/java. The development kit comes with the runtime, of course. sudo update-alternatives.
Wrote and compiled a few scripts, refreshed on java syntax.
Didn’t use eclipse or netbeans, will regain familiarity at the cli / basic text editor first.
Did a few codingbat warmups.
Gradle.
It’s not just a build tool for java, you can use c++ or python and more with it. It’s the official build tool for android. Maven is a common competitor, as is Bazel. Dependency management, build parallelism, caching, all the similar features of my old sx-setuptools.
You may implement plugins in a few DSLs. Groovy and Kotlin are very popular.
Jenkins.
Installed and started a local instance of the server.
Played around with pipelines, integrations with scm, artifacts. Different nodes to execute, docker.
It looks like you can configure things with a jenkins config, similar to bamboo’s yaml specs.
Overall, it looks like Bamboo can do a bit more out of the box, but jenkins is very extensible. There are a ton of plugins out there.
Remember your conviction: as little as possible should be defined in the build system. This regards configs, tasks, and other entities. Your platform (jenkins, bamboo, whatever) should just be an orchestrator, the engine that executes scripts in your source where the actual build logic is defined. Build as code, config as code, deploy as code.
Started my 2019 taxes. I have the 3921 but the 1099Bs won’t be available until 2/18. Did most everything except stocks.
Remember 3k limit capital loss carryover.
I have so many thoughts on taxes. Strong opinions. Maybe a later post with detailed rationale.
AMT.
Filing manually vs private intuit vs checks+balances vs fully automated IRS.
General capitalism and government’s role.
Political/financial bedding.
Data age; law enforcement, defense, national security with information > force.
Loophole plugs targeting upper affecting middle.
Itemized use of federal/state services, receipts by individual, opt-in.
Tech growth and data > centralized policy.
Govt budgets and legacy corners that should be privatized.
Online era and internationalism.
Shoutout to the stranger from yesterday. Was pleasantly surprised. I’ve never read any of Harlan Coben and know very little, but the plot complexity of this series was up to snuff. I raaaaarely read fiction but will look into it some.
Prepared the full list of scheduled maintenance for the 7500 mile / 24 month mark on the Ducati. I’m currently at 6630, so I have some runway before the light comes on. Many inspections, but the actual work items are replacements of the air filter, engine oil and filter, brake pads and rotors.
AWS Kinesis: stream data, store data, analyze data. Realtime. Can be used for monitoring, analytics, machine learning. Can do video/image as well. Apache spark and storm are slightly different.
Watched s1 of the stranger (Harlan Coben) in the background.
The corpus callosum is a bundle of nerves that connects the left and right brain hemispheres. Sometimes this is surgically severed to treat epileptic seizures. The patients yield incredible split-brain research, from insight into how we analyze/create and the (imo) more-interesting exploration of dual subjectivity and dual consciousness. There are two very distinct minds up there, usually unified but separately survivable.
Got a 60m deep tissue massage last night. Well worth it. Seems to be more effective than chiro for neck relaxation, post-workout contraction, motorcycle stiffness.
Netflix at 68m subs, Disney+ at 28m. Closer than I’d thought, considering timeline.
Tesla is #2 in global auto market cap behind Toyota.
Started HBO’s the outsider, another adaptation of Stephen King’s work. There’s been a lot of these lately, and I’m happy they’re taking hold. One of my favorite fiction authors of all time, and is incomparable in output.
Citadel >30b in assets under management (top 10 for hedge funds). Bridgewater #1 @132b and RenTec #2 @68b. Asset types obviously matter.
Netflix did fine during the bear from Oct 07 – Mar 09, with some ups and downs but trending generally from $3 to $6.
Most expensive home sale in America = 250m in Bel Air, 2018.
An interesting observation about the attractive mindlessness of TV/movies: “social” interaction without risk of being judged. You have a window into other people, faces, emotions – all without exposing yourself. That’s the most peaceful state, from an evolutionary perspective.
Finished Sam Harris’ Waking Up. Love the pragmatic approach. Some of the shamanistic/buddhist discussions felt a bit lengthy, but the general focus on meditation is sound. The benefits of mindfulness are scientifically absolute, with or without any natural or divine backing. In addition, the man is an exceptionally articulate thinker, which is refreshingly ironic to see in a neuroscientist. The mind is a crazy thing, and he’s got a cool one.
Loss aversion: the negative emotion around a loss is ~2x as strong as the positive around a gain.
Anchoring: your initial experience with something (an asset) will be weighted much more heavily than any subsequent interaction.
Endowment effect: value is perceived higher for stuff already in your portfolio.
Ensured that the updraftplus wordpress backup was working properly.
Added the second droplet to the existing alert policies (disk and mem and cpu). All above 90% for 5m.
Modeling the market is really about modeling people. Taking advantage of predictable human behavior. At least that was the case for the last few decades. Now that trading is overwhelmingly automatic, I’m curious how the models will retain alphas in the years to come.
In general, it’s simply about finding signal and backtesting to the point of confident repetition. You don’t need something with 90% success, you need to find a reliable 51% probability (like a casino).
Of particular relevance to me right now: in the 2008 decline, most hedge funds lost in the ~10%s, whereas S&P was in the 30%s. Some funds even had positive returns.
Robinhood reached out with open software engineering positions. Little late.
Looked at making a group listserv for sbsc so people could subscribe/unsub on their own. Gmail doesn’t have a great option for native groups like outlook.
Youtube had 15b revenue in 2019 (more than all major tv networks combined). Google cloud products brought 9b.
Netflix prep call. Let Disney know.
TSLA hit $960 at one point today, almost +25%. What is happening.
Made 12 egg/bacon/avocado breakfast sandwiches for the week, as well as sweet potato homefries.
Bought a 10lb pork belly and started the cure. Will probably only have time for ~1wk in the brine before smoking/slicing.
