Mostly Software

    • Artgo is a mining company (marble) in China, and was doing incredibly well on the hong kong markets for the past 6 months until yesterday when it dropped 98%. This happens less frequently in american markets, which are way less volatile, but it’s still crazy.
    • Cal Stanford football tomorrow.
    • Helped last night with a little bit of the hydra/dispatch frontend to adjust header sizes and scroll position to match the active step.
    • Tesla unveiled its new truck last night lol. It’s fast. It’s ugly. It failed the window smash tests live.
    • My return on the day for ZYME alone was $968.31.
    • Volume is literally the number of transactions for a security, usually over the span of a day, and usually averaged over a number of days. If person X buys and person Y sells, that only counts as 1. Anything under a couple hundred thousand is usually considered low volume, or thinly traded. They’re riskier because you might not be able to sell, or it will have large swings. This makes diamonds in the rough even smaller/rarer.
    • “In order to match the hordes of buy and sell orders, exchanges start with the highest bid (buy order) and try to match it up with the lowest ask (sell order). Because there are usually thousands of bid and ask orders in the system during the trading day, chances are usually very good that there will be little difference separating the highest bid order from the lowest ask order. However, once the trading day finishes and after-hours trading commences, there are drastically fewer participants entering bid and ask orders into the system for a security. Because of this lack of order volume, there is a much greater chance that a big dollar value difference will exist between the quoted bid and ask values for a particular security.” – Investopedia.
      • Instead of checking the market price (quote) during afterhours, which is just a representation of the last trade, look up the ask price (or the full list of available asks, which are sell orders). That will tell you what you’re going to actually pay for it.
      • Alternatively, place a limit buy order instead of market.
      • You’re going to naturally see even higher spreads on a lower-volume stock.
    • Watched Chris Kesser’s appearance on JRE, to try to multi-source some suggestions I’d been getting on Medium as well. All revolve around debunking the game changers documentary about vegan health.
      • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNhDHw5F2Ys.
      • He went over the expected. Amino acid profile is important. 1g beef protein != 1g wheat protein.
      • You could achieve the same full profile, but you’d be taking in a lot more carbs, fat, and overall calories. You’d have to eat like 5x the mass of vegetables/beans/etc to get the same protein profile. Not impossible, but diluted.
      • Also, in general, the dogmatic nature of the doc. Rather than educating both sides, and encouraging wise decisions because of X here and Y there, it’s clearly biased.
      • Scalability of landsize was an interesting point. Growing edible crops to feed 7.5 billion people isn’t possible. It’s not as dense as meat, in both production (the input side) and in nutrition (the output side).
      • My stance was unchanged. Eco and ethical impact of meat = bad, fully defensible. Health = good, mostly defensible.
    • Did some TLRA research with Art.
    • Went to All Indian Sweets and Snacks with Remy. That place is delicious.
    • Turkey prep for Sunday.
      • Spatchcocked and started the brine. Separated each half into the 3 cuts:
        1. Leg: thigh and drumstick
        2. Chest: breast and tenderloin
        3. Wing: wing and drummette (no tip)
      • Combined the wing tips, neck, backbone, heart, liver, and all other trimmings while separating the bird. All will be used to make broth.
    • Stock is from bones, broth is from meat. Mine uses both.
    • Upgraded to robinhood gold.
      • Also enabled option trading, allowing me to do calls (buy at strike price later, expect appreciation, long) and puts (sell at strike price later, expect depreciation, short).
      • They give you research reports from morningstar, which estimate a fair value, measure uncertainty, and more.
      • Supposedly this will give level II market data soon, with live bid/ask prices from nasdaq.
    • Played with robin-stocks more.
      • Oh shit you can already get the bids/asks from the api.
        • eg get_pricebook_by_symbol(‘zyme’) – lists all the asks and bids and how much.
      • You can also get the splits!
        • eg get_splits(‘trex’) – will list all of them with dates and multipliers.
      • Full history data is available. This might be better than yahoo finance.
      • The only thing I notice is missing is the automatic calculation of TTM%, and all the dividend yield information.
    • Always gold: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIwrgAnx6Q8. O Fortuna with the wrong lyrics.
    • Trading.
      • Wow, only 372 people on robinhood have ZYME. For comparison, 232k have MSFT.
      • The most popular is Aurora Cannabis, at 555k holders. The 100th most popular is Spotify, at 17k, so overall there’s not an overwhelming number of investors on the platform, but 372 is still very low.
      • Placed another buy order for ZYME to test when the market was open. Ordered @38.64, executed at @38.76. Much better than last night, which had a difference of $1.75.
      • 0.3% slip during normal, 4.5% slip during afterhours.
      • Chobani is doing well, and now coming out with oat products to satisfy the vegans. They’re owned by general mills (GIS).
      • White Claw is under Mark Anthony Brands, which also owns Mike’s Hard Lemonade. They’re private.
      • Truly is under Boston Beer Company, which also owns Sam Adams, Twisted Tea, Angry Orchard. They’re public (ticker SAM).
        • Would probably be lucrative to invest in them before they release the new and reformulated flavors, but again, this isn’t my choice industry.
    • Numpy arrays are much less resource-heavy than standard python lists, and they can have more dimensions.
    • Jupyter is convenient for the whole “should I develop this code from the interpreter and then copy it to a script, or write the script directly and run it iteratively?” And nice that it can be done from the browser, with graphs/text intermixed with code, for easy sharing.
    • Bought LiB tickets (4-day). $319ga+$43fee.
      • Expected the old Doug song “Banging on a Trash Can” to be all over the place in parody of the Astros scandal, but I haven’t seen it anywhere.
      • Blogger has a stats section now. Good summaries of views, for the most part. Example: https://www.blogger.com/blog/stats/week/5994952039352729268.
      • You can’t ping ports.
      • Supercontest. Updated ross’ banner. Committed new lines, submitted picks.
      • T.RowePrice has some good funds: https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/morningstar-4-and-5-star-rated-funds.
      • Rain!!
      • Tradebot.
        • get_dividend_yield() now has an input arg to specify forward or trailing.
        • Added get_delta(), which is similar to get_slope but does a pure difference (annualized by the timeframe and the delta) instead of a linear regression.
        • Multiprocessed the ttm_slope and div_yield calculators. Full returns take about 8m now. Each individually used to take about 45min.
        • Finishing the total-return analytics, both forward (predictive) and trailing (exact) for the top performers of last year and current+next.
        • Added entry points for both main calculators.
        • Yahoo returns a 52-week change for most symbols, and a yield, but not as much for full history. Therefore the trailing ROI is more accurate (or at least more comprehensive). The forward ROI regresses the historical data, which doesn’t exist for many, so it has a lot of empty zeros.
        • Final results.
        • Wes brought up a good point that splits will skew the data.
        • After manually checking the rankings, I bought some zyme (biopharmaceuticals). This is mostly a test to verify my bot, rather than a wholehearted investment. Their charts look fantastic, even beyond the ttm I analyzed, and all earnings have exceeded. Market price was $38.76 when I ordered, and then it executed at $40.49, which is absolute horseshit. I bought 260, which is 10k, and it immediately lost $450. No more volatile slippage. I gotta stop afterhours trading.
      • Subscribed to Disney+ with the money I made from the investment in its launch. $70/yr. Sent the login to socal to pay it forward.
        • They have all disney, pixar, marvel, star wars, natgeo.
        • I like how they don’t autoplay on hover by default.
      • Donated $5 to wikipedia.
      • The forward dividend yield takes the most recent div, normalizes its period to a year (usually), and divides by current stock price to estimate what the next year’s div yield will be (if it stays the same as right now). The trailing dividend yield actually looks at a previous timeframe (usually a year), since it has that data, and calculates the %.
      • Matt Stonie ate 100 waffles in 15 minutes.
      • FF moves. 2 for espn, 1 for yahoo. Not much this late, and my teams suck.
      • Robinhood Gold.
        • Instant deposits? Yes.
        • Instant buying power after sell orders? Yes, if market is open.
        • Instant withdrawals? No.
      • Morningstar is the private research company that provides the yield data for yahoo finance and the advanced data for robinhood gold.
      • Tradebot.
        • Display market cap as millions.
        • Made the $/yr ttm slope ranker normalize on price (at the beginning of the time period, the past year) for %/yr, rather than the absolute $/yr.
        • This allowed me to then sum the growth %/yr with the yield %/yr for total return.
      • Generally agree: https://medium.com/@tmitchelhill73/lets-talk-about-the-game-changers-1d76a0c344e5. There are 3 main targets for a vegan diet: Eco, Ethics, Health. The first two are obvious and clear. The third is not.
      • Went to wing ferno. Got the spiciest they had. Pretty good. The chicken was juicy, but I like the batter a bit crispier.
      • Bought two 20lb turkeys at costco. Butterball, $1/lb, with giblets, no steroids/hormones. Best part: it comes fresh, not frozen.
      • DIS went about +8% on tuesday and then -1 each day through the rest of the week. Decided to hold through Monday, after people lazily watched Disney+ all weekend and shared their logins, hoping for another spike. It happened. Sold everything for a total profit of $650.
        • Worth reminding that I did nothing to deserve this. Got $650 for a couple clicks. I don’t like the volatility or the rationale of modern investment. I’ve contributed nothing to the world through these actions, and I’ve been rewarded for it. Others have dedicated their lives to the same, becoming billionaires. The spirit of investment is the encouragement of new technologies/products/services/etc. We can do this without public trading, for it corrupts more than it enables.
      • Won both fantasy games. Got 3/5 in sbsc.
        • >64% across the entire league in supercontest, our highest ever in the 2018 and 2019 seasons (except week 17, garbage time).
      • Tofu and tempeh are both from soy.
      • Tradebot.
        • Lots of work. General cleanup. Reorganized all the modules in the package structure. Moved some functions around.
        • Generalized get_valid_tickers() to a simple symbol fetcher, allowing downstream functions to filter on cap/price/etc as desired.
        • The reason some of the slopes were broken is that the yahoo historical data had gaps. You’d request a year, and it would only have a month, and that month might have been a great rise while the rest of the year sucked. To fix this, I changed get_slope() to only return if there is statistically significant data (at least 50% of days in the requested time period).
        • There are ~1200 tickers returned by NYSE for >1b cap and <$100 price, but yahoo only has historical data on ~250 of them.
        • Yahoo doesn’t return consistent data. Sometimes there are gaps in history. Sometimes there are not. In a standard run for ttm perf on 1200 tickers, different symbols will report dataframe.empty in back-to-back runs.
          • For this reason, I will not multiprocess the main functions in the analysis module.
        • The stock market (well, NYSE) is open every day except weekends and 9 holidays, so 251 days a year (69%).
        • Changed it to not filter >1B and <$100, just analyze ALL.
        • Finished the entire TTM performance effort. Compared to local plots. Compared to google plots. Everything looks good.
        • Finished the rankings for dividend yield. https://gitlab.com/bmahlstedt-group/tradebot/issues/5.
      • Supercontest.
        • Pick percentage was sorted on for in-progress and finished games, between cover/push/noncover all complement to 100. Pick percentage was not sorted on for unstarted games. I added this as the second-to-last (num_picks, desc), before user ID.
        • Made the late picks email include the recipients in the body.
        • Updated the app to properly adjust for both sides of daylight savings time, which shifts in the middle of week 9: https://gitlab.com/bmahlstedt-group/supercontest/issues/139.
      • The same FPS looks way worse in games than movies. In games, you produce an image and combine them all together for motion. In movies, the camera’s shutter is open for a small period of time, so you get motion blur automatically.
      • Bought a 12.5lb turkey. Started thawing.
      • Astros have been cheating for years, banging on trash cans and whistling for offspeed pitches based on cameras.
      • Started Black Mirror from the beginning. I had only seen maybe 1-2 episodes (and the movie).
      • This channel is crazy: https://www.youtube.com/user/24619carlos.
      • Tradebot.
        • https://gitlab.com/bmahlstedt-group/tradebot/issues/5.
        • Added fetch/analysis/sort for dividend and yield %.
        • Some are as high as >20%, but it’s obviously dependent upon price. Some good standards are around 4-5 (verizon, ibm, etc). The securities in the S&P500 average out to about 2% right now.
      • Banner. Ross 12 Remy 13 Franky 14 Art 15. Only two weeks still available.
      • Only about 10% of both Portugal and Brazil speak Spanish. It’s pretty similar to Portuguese tho.
      • Categorization is generally good. We can lump objects into groups, and that is a convenience. It’s efficient. It saves time. Those waterbreathing soap bars are fish, those large horseless cars are vans, etc.
        • There’s nothing wrong with this, when it’s applied to objects. To companies. To Food.
        • There is a problem with this, when it’s applied to people, because then the group identity is considered before the individual. A stranger sees a tribe, a color, a language, before a person. It is no longer an efficient shortcut, but is instead a presumption; a presumption about something that can change, a complex human being with free will.
        • This applies to good and bad judgement; I don’t like X race, I am patriotic toward Y nation. They’re the same presumption, the same categorization, and both ultimately become a bias surrounding an irrelevant generalization.
      • Awesome warriors story: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHeAHaxW0nI.
      • Jim Simons is the founder of RenTech. Net worth >21b. Went to Berkeley and MIT for math.
      • Mackenzie Bezos (ex-wife) is the 15th richest american at 36b, all from the divorce settlement. 4th richest woman in the world.
      • Supercontest. Updated last week’s single pick for Jeremy.
        • select * from picks where user_id = 6 order by id desc;
        • update picks set team = ‘DOLPHINS’ where id = 5927;
      • UFC in Sao Paulo.
      • Kaep did a practice workout today. Switched locations at the end, but footage should go to all 32 teams. Curious if anyone tries to pick him up, considering the underperformance of many starters right now.
      • Made pistachio butter. As of right now, pecan butter is still king but I’ll try a bit tomorrow after it cools/settles/separates.